Have you ever noticed that the prices on the fuel truck on the ramp at your home airport are slow to follow the gas station prices on the way down? No, you are not wrong. However, our natural inclination to link the two may not be as sound as one would think. This article will shed light on why that is.
Gleim covered the supply side of this subject directly in our earlier post, “Is Avgas Availability at Risk in 2027? No, 100LL Isn’t Disappearing — The Slack in the System Is.” That piece made the case that a nationwide 100LL shortage is unlikely through 2027, that avgas is a small, batch-produced slice of refinery output, and that regional gaps are the real risk, not a national disappearance. Ben Sclair, publisher of General Aviation News, read that post and wrote his own response, “A View of 100LL I Hadn’t Considered,” saying the batch-production and refinery-economics details caught him off guard. His piece is worth reading in full. It isn’t a correction of our earlier argument; it’s confirmation that these mechanics aren’t common knowledge, even among people who follow this industry closely.
This post picks up where both of those left off. Neither piece dug into a related but separate question: why doesn’t the price of 100LL move the way you’d expect it to when crude oil and motor gasoline move? That’s the angle we’re adding here, built on a decade of observed pricing data.
Quick answer: 100LL isn’t disappearing in 2027, and its price doesn’t move in lockstep with crude oil or motor gasoline. Retail pricing lags because FBOs sell fuel they already bought at a higher price, inventory turns over slowly, and avgas is a small, specialty product made in limited batches at a few refineries. That’s a pricing and distribution story, not a shortage story.
Is 100LL Actually Running Out in 2027?
No. As discussed in the previous articles, the current regulatory and production picture points to continued 100LL availability through 2027 and beyond, with the main risk being regional tightness rather than a national shortage. The FAA’s EAGLE initiative, codified in the 2024 FAA Reauthorization Act, sets a goal of safely eliminating leaded aviation fuel in piston aircraft by the end of 2030. That’s a little over four years out from this writing, and it’s a transition goal tied to qualifying and scaling unleaded replacements, not an announcement that 100LL supply is drying up now.
The misconception worth correcting directly: some pilots have read headlines about the unleaded transition and concluded 100LL is about to disappear in 2027. It isn’t. Transition deadlines, production economics, and day-to-day pump prices are three different things, and conflating them leads to bad fuel-planning decisions, like topping off out of panic instead of comparing prices along your route. Avgas production has stayed relatively steady over the past decade; what’s changed is that it’s concentrated among fewer refiners, which is a distribution question, not a disappearance.
Why Don’t Avgas Prices Move in Lockstep With Supply?
Avgas prices lag because retail pricing reflects fuel that was purchased and delivered earlier, not what it would cost to buy today. Think of it this way: the fuel truck shows up at the local gas station several times a week, while most FBOs only see a supply truck a few times a month – or less. Fewer deliveries mean fewer price changes.
At the wholesale level, where refiners sell to distributors, avgas has historically tracked motor gasoline closely, running roughly 90 cents to $1.07 per gallon above wholesale motor gasoline through the 2014 to 2020 period, moving up and down together. Retail is where the relationship breaks down.
That gap exists for three concrete reasons. First, FBO inventory was bought at an earlier price, so a sudden wholesale drop doesn’t show up at the pump until inventory sells through and a new, cheaper load arrives. Second, avgas is a tiny market: it made up roughly 0.09 percent of U.S. petroleum consumption in 2013, and a small market with few producers doesn’t reprice with the speed or competitive pressure of the national gasoline market. Third, the lead additive (TEL/TEL-B) in 100LL adds its own blending and handling costs layered on top of ordinary distribution expenses. None of this means supply is at risk; it means the price you see is a lagging indicator.
What’s Really Driving the Gap Between Inventory and the Pump Price?
The clearest driver of the gap is the inventory sitting in FBO tanks, and the spring of 2020 is the starkest example on record. When COVID-19 response policies shut down large parts of the economy, crude oil and motor gasoline prices collapsed. The U.S. national average for regular gasoline fell to $1.77 per gallon on April 27, 2020, its lowest weekly level in EIA’s data since early 2016, with some states, including Missouri and Oklahoma, averaging under $1.50.
100LL barely moved. Plane & Pilot reported the average price of 100LL in the Northeast at $5.26 in April 2020, just 23 cents below the $5.49 it had averaged the previous December, and only 22 cents below the $5.48 average from a year before that. Over roughly that same window, the national average for regular gasoline fell about 71 cents, from $2.56 in December 2019 to $1.84 in April 2020. The telling detail is that wholesale avgas did fall sharply during this period, dropping from $2.73 per gallon in December 2019 to $1.59 in April 2020, a decline of $1.14, nearly matching the $1.11 drop in wholesale motor gasoline over the same months. Refiners repriced fast to keep refineries operating as gasoline demand collapsed. The retail lag was likely influenced by slower inventory turnover and delayed price adjustments at FBOs and elsewhere in the distribution chain.
How Does Small-Batch Specialty Production Shape What You Pay?
Small-batch production slows the pass-through of lower crude prices because avgas doesn’t get repriced the way a high-volume commodity does. The 2014 to 2016 oil price collapse shows this clearly. West Texas Intermediate crude, the main U.S. benchmark, peaked near $107 per barrel in late June 2014 and fell to $26.21 on February 11, 2016, a decline of roughly 75 percent. U.S. regular gasoline tracked that slide at the pump, averaging $3.36 per gallon in 2014, $2.43 in 2015, and $2.14 in 2016. Additionally, small-batch production is easier to switch off than large-market production, as production interruption is already “built into” small-batch commodities.
100LL moved, but far more slowly. On January 14, 2015, AirNav’s national average for 100LL was still $5.41 per gallon, with the cheapest individual listing at $3.22. A week later it was $5.37, with most airports posting between $5.00 and $5.99, while regular gasoline nationally averaged $2.04 on January 26 of that year. AOPA reported at the time that plunging crude prices were slow to reach avgas specifically because of the market’s small size and its small-batch specialty production, with one analyst quoted saying aviation fuel could eventually fall as much as 40 percent if crude held in the $40 to $50 range for a year or more, and another pointing out that FBOs generally need to sell through existing inventory before a cheaper delivery arrives. Wholesale data again shows the lag wasn’t at the refinery: refiners’ average avgas price fell from $3.69 per gallon in 2014 to $2.40 in 2016, a $1.29 decline, slightly larger in cents than the $1.16 drop in wholesale motor gasoline, though smaller as a percentage. In both periods, retail prices adjusted more slowly than wholesale prices.
Why Do Prices Sometimes Stay High Even After Supply Loosens?
Prices sometimes stay elevated because the same inventory and small-batch dynamics that slow price decreases when wholesale costs fall can also keep prices elevated longer after a spike, since FBOs are still working through fuel bought near the top of the market, and because avgas pricing doesn’t always track even its closest comparison fuels. The clearest recent example came in 2022. Coming out of the pandemic lockdowns and into the disruption from the war in Ukraine, wholesale gasoline and diesel prices rose faster than crude oil itself, inventories ran low both domestically and globally, and refinery margins hit record levels. U.S. regular gasoline averaged $3.95 per gallon for the year, peaking at a monthly average of $4.93 in June.
In April 2022, GlobalAir.com data showed the national average price of Jet A exceeding the national average price of 100LL, the first time that had happened in nearly 15 years of GlobalAir’s tracking. By May 4, 2022, the national averages stood at $6.59 for 100LL and $6.90 for Jet A. The crossover didn’t last. By July 2022, the two fuels had flipped back, with 100LL averaging $7.55 and Jet A at $7.25, and that July figure remained GlobalAir’s record until September 2026, when 100LL averaged $7.59. Why Jet A briefly outpaced 100LL that spring isn’t fully settled, but the episode is a reminder that avgas doesn’t simply mirror every move in the much larger gasoline and distillate markets. Once avgas prices climb during a tight market, the slow turnover of FBO inventory can keep those higher prices in place well after the broader fuel market starts to ease.
How Should Pilots and Owners Budget for 100LL in 2027?
Budgeting for 100LL in 2027 means planning around price stickiness and regional variation, not around the assumption that avgas will track the price of gas at the highway pump. A few concrete steps make that easier:
- Check current prices before you file, not from memory. Avgas prices can sit unchanged for months and then move suddenly; a price you remember from your last fuel stop may be stale.
- Compare prices along your planned route, not just at your destination. Specialty, small-batch production means pricing can vary meaningfully between airports a short flight apart.
- Build a fuel-cost margin into your flight planning, especially for cross-country trips, rather than assuming the lowest price you’ve seen recently will still be available.
- Don’t assume a drop in crude oil or mogas prices will show up at your FBO right away. As the spring 2020 and 2014-to-2016 data show, that pass-through can take months. Therefore, even if crude oil and motor fuel prices resolve early in 2027, avgas may remain high for many more months as the avgas refined and stored at 2026 prices stays in distribution.
- Call ahead to unfamiliar airports before a fuel stop, particularly in regions with fewer producers nearby, to confirm both price and availability rather than discovering a surprise on arrival.
- Log your fuel costs over time if you fly regularly. A personal record of what you’ve actually paid, by airport and by month, will tell you more about your own cost trends than any single headline will.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is 100LL actually disappearing in 2027, or is this just a pricing issue?
It’s a pricing issue, not a disappearance. No nationwide 100LL shortage is expected through 2027; the FAA’s unleaded transition goal targets the end of 2030, and that’s a scheduled phase-in tied to approved replacement fuels, not an imminent cutoff. What pilots actually experience day to day, like a price that doesn’t drop when mogas does, comes from inventory and small-batch production economics, not a vanishing fuel supply.
Why did the price of 100LL jump at my home airport but not at the field next door?
Because avgas is produced in limited batches by a small number of refiners and distributed through a thin supply chain, prices can diverge noticeably between nearby airports depending on when each FBO’s current inventory was purchased and delivered. One field may still be selling fuel bought before a price increase while another has already received a newer, costlier load. This is normal for a specialty product and doesn’t indicate a shortage at either location.
How can I find the cheapest 100LL avgas prices near me before a cross-country flight?
Check current prices through a flight-planning app or fuel-price lookup tool before you file, rather than relying on what you remember paying last time, since avgas prices can stay flat for months and then shift without warning. Compare prices at several airports along your route, not just your destination, because small-batch production means nearby fields can post noticeably different prices. Calling ahead to confirm both price and fuel availability is good practice, especially at unfamiliar airports.
Should student pilots worry about avgas price swings while they’re still training?
Student pilots shouldn’t lose sleep over avgas price swings, but it’s worth building fuel-cost awareness into flight planning from the start, since training budgets are sensitive to recurring costs like fuel. Understanding that 100LL prices move independently of crude oil and mogas headlines helps set realistic expectations rather than reacting to news about gas prices elsewhere. A good flight instructor can help a student factor typical fuel costs into a training budget without overcomplicating early lessons.
Understanding how 100LL is priced, produced, and regulated is exactly the kind of real-world knowledge that separates a pilot who reacts to headlines from one who plans with confidence. Gleim Aviation has been preparing pilots with that kind of grounded, practical knowledge since 1980. If you’re working toward a certificate or rating, our Online Ground School and FAA Knowledge Test Prep are built to cover the aerodynamics, regulations, and operational judgment you’ll need, fuel planning included, so you walk into your checkride, and your flying career, prepared. Continue your preparation at Aviation.Gleim.com.